Mid-season evaluation and review part 4

KPL, Sotkamo and Joensuu all have a chance to finish 1st

Full predictions

This post will look at the full picture of the league and analyse the projected positions of teams based on calculations as well as my own personal thoughts.


Who will take the top spot?

The calculations half way through the season suggested that it could be any of the top 4 teams that will finish 1st this season, where they could equally also finish anywhere in the top 4. When this season’s new format was announced, I did a post analysing which teams would benefit from the changes; I predicted that the top 4 teams would have better results overall and would benefit - the analysis so far this season suggests that I was right, although this could be down to a number of factors. The most likely candidate for 1st place is now Sotkamo; however KPL could take top spot if they play the same as they did in the first half of the season. My personal view is Joensuu will finish first in the table, but only if they continue to show the same resolve they did in their games against KPL and Sotkamo and don’t develop problems like against Kitee. I like the way Vimpeli are putting the effort and passion into their games, but they have an outside chance of finishing first in my opinion, due to how fierce the competition is. 

Calculations at 2nd August: KPL

Calculations at 13th August 2020: Sotkamo

My views: Joensuu


Who will make the playoffs from 5th to 8th?

This is the big question for the regular season. Outside of the top 4 there are several groups of teams aiming for a place in the postseason:

  1. Almost certain of a playoff spot - Seinäjoki and Kitee;
  2. A good chance of a playoff spot - Hyvinkää, IPV, Pattijoki, Kempele,
  3. Unlikely to make the playoffs - Kankaanpää, Koskenkorva, Manse and Siilinjärvi 


In the end, the final few games of the season will be crucial for all of these teams, not just in securing a place in the top 8, but building momentum to face one of the top 4. Kitee have improved in the calculations and currently look like they could finis 5th; my own view is that whilst there are some great performances at Kitee and their two pitchers are doing very well, I just can’t imagine that Kitee will keep pace with Seinäjoki, who have been consistently picking up points game after game. The calculations suggest that IPV and Kempele will make the top 8 but Hyvinkää and Pattijoki will not; I suspect that in the run to the end of the season we will see the pressure being applied to both these teams and it will be “make or break” for them. I think both Hyvinkää an Pattijoki have the players and tactics to make the top 8. Kempele and Hyvinkää have very poor defensive stats and started the season with new game managers; however in a straight race between the 2, Hyvinkää has the better and more consistent offence and more experienced game manager. IPV and PattU have fairly good defences, but offensively Pattijoki has really struggled (especially since Jari Törmänen’s injury). The experience on both teams is pretty high, with PattU’s Topi Kosonen and Sami Haapakoski and IPV’s Sami Partanen and Tuomas Jussila to name a few. Apart from a tough matchup with Joensuu on the horizon, PattU has some favourable games scheduled before the end of the season, plus Topi Kosonen is likely to continue his strong performance as pitcher.


Calculations at 2nd August:

5th - Seinäjoki 

6th - Kempele

7th - Kitee

8th - IPV


Calculations at 13th August 2020:

5th - Kitee

6th - Seinäjoki 

7th - IPV

8th - Kempele


My views:

5th - Seinäjoki 

6th - Kitee

7th - Hyvinkää 

8th - Pattijoki



Who will finish bottom of he league?

They calculations both at half way through the season and now suggest that SiiPe will finish bottom, but that is far from certain. There are 3 realistic candidates for bottom: Siilinjärvi, Manse and Koskenkorva. If SiiPe can steal points and Manse struggle or Koskenkorva revert to their first few weeks performance, it really could be any of them. SiiPe have had two 3 point wins since halfway through the season and are certainly not a sure thing for 14th place.


In addition to these 3 teams, there are 1 or 2 teams just on the verge of dropping to the bottom, but it would be highly unlikely; those teams are Kankaanpää and Kempele. Kankaanpää have been struggling since the beginning of August and have earned 0 points from the last 4 games. Kempele on the other hand do show flashes of offensive power and can threaten to win games; since halfway through the season however, they cannot capitalise in games and have also earned 0 points from 2nd August (in 3 games). If hey continue in this way and the teams below them capitalise, it could be a shock 14th place for either of them.

Calculations at 2nd August: Siilinjärvi 

Calculations at 13th August 2020: Siilinjärvi

My views: Siilinjärvi 

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