The tale of two Koskenkorva

How times have changed... Koskenkorva are playing well, but it wasn’t alway that way

What kind of season has it been for Koskenkorva?

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...” or should that be the other way round when it comes to Koskenkorva? For a team that sat in 14th place week after week at the beginning of the season, with a troubling 0 points scored, the season seems to have taken an unexpected turn for KoU, who now sit at 8th in the league and are causing problems for big teams.

... the worst of times

The start of the season was a disaster for Koskenkorva with 0 points in 5 games, despite having amongst their ranks the league leader in RBI and July’s player of the month - Patrik Wahlsten. The outfield was leaking runs like a sieve and Wahlsten seemed to be the only player who could generate runs. The fortunes changed in a close run game against newly promoted Manse, and a 2 point win finally broke the back of their scoreless season.

The best of times...

After scoring their first points of the season, KoU have started to grow and fix the many problems they had at the start of the season. The outfield now seems to be able to contain even the most fearsome batting lineups and keep them in the game - this culminated in arguably their highlight of the season, a kotiutuskilpailu (scoring contest) win over Sotkamo on 14th August.

What could have been

I decided to look back on “what could have been” for Koskenkorva if they had started the season with the level of performance they now are showing. To do this I removed the results of the first 5 games for KoU and deducted the points and runs scored for their opponents too. The calculation then assumes that all those teams play at the same level they are now in order to calculate what the predicted results would be.

The end calculation was quite staggering, with Koskenkerva sitting 6th in the table at the end of the season ahead of Hyvinkää and Seinäjoki! The impact on Seinäjoki here as perhaps a bit dramatic, as it wiped out two solid wins at the start of the season and massively impacted on their runs for and against.

Back to reality

Whilst it would be wonderful to simply ignore results that don’t fit a narrative, real life doesn’t work that way. The calculations have some very big and fatal assumptions- that if the results of the first 5 games were in line to Koskenkorva’s performance right now, they would pick up points and even wins in those games. But it may be worth looking at those first 5 games in more detail and considering whether it would be reasonable to assume that KoU would still come up with the goods.

Koskenkorva’s opening game was a 0-2 loss to Vimpeli. Vimpeli had come off a home loss themselves and were determined to restart the season with a win. The game itself was actually fairly narrow in terms of the score and both jakso were decided by a single run. The verdict: maybe Koskenkorva could have picked up a point, but the win was probably a stretch.

Next came Seinäjoki in a doublehead, home and away series. At the start of the season Seinäjoki were punchy and full of promise, having beaten Vimpeli and hungry to establish themselves as serious championship contenders. The score line could have been closer, but Seinäjoki were just too strong in the opened game games and I cannot see that Koskenkorva would have turned either game into a victory. The verdict: nothing here for KoU in terms of points.

The 4th game of the season was a tough game against Kempele. Despite Kempele showing an equally shaky outfield, they had been one of the key success stories at the start of the season. Kempele had taken on and beaten Sotkamo in a supervuoro win to open the season. The big difference between Koskenkorva then and Kempele was that Kempele seemed to generate runs up and down the lineup. With Koskenkorva now seeming to pose more threats at scoring, it is questionable whether they could have won the game or not. The recent win over Kempele at home suggests maybe they could have; however Kempele were playing much better at the start of the season compared to that game, so maybe not. Verdict: possibly a win for KoU, but I suspect Kempele would still have won.

The 5th game of the season was the last in their scoreless streak. Koskenkorva narrowly lost the first jakso against a struggling PattU and then tied the second. This game could have been different if Koskenkorva were in the same form they are in now, but PattU could equally have pushed harder in the game if they were under more pressure. The verdict: given how poor PattU have been, I would say this is probably the game Koskenkorva could have won, albeit I don’t think they would have taken 3 points.

Another assumption that shatters the prediction is the fact that a recent SiiPe result was overturned in their favour due to an ineligible player. KoU lost the game 2-0 but due to the player violation they pick up 3 points!