Postseason preview: semi finals

Can anyone stop Joensuu? Or are they Untouchable...


Joensuun Maila (1) v Kouvolan Pallonlyöjat (4)

Head to head: Joensuu continues to dominate, but now they face some serious competition in the form of KPL. Both of this season’s games between these 2 teams saw Joensuu take away 3 points comfortably, you may be forgiven in thinking that this will be an easy win for JoMa; however KPL have a lot of experience and talent in their ranks. Historically, the matchup has been 6-4 in favour of Joensuu, although KPL’s last win came on 30th May 2019. 

Form: I will repeat what I said in the last preview for Joensuu - their form is immaculate; they haven’t lost a game since 9th July this year! That’s now 23 straight victories. Whilst their wins against PattU in the quarterfinals were not the most elegant, Joensuu manage to do exactly enough to win games. KPL seemed to step up a gear in the post season, brushing off a slightly muted end to what promised to be. KPL put some solid numbers up at both of their home games in their 2-1 series win over Kitee; however Kerubi promises to be a daunting venue with a large turnout expected for JoMa fans.

Prediction: Joensuu to win 2-0.

Summary: At the risk of repeating myself, Joensuu are virtually unstoppable right now and have lost only 2 games since 15th September 2019! Defence will reign supreme for Joensuu and a good game plan with star Lukkari Juha Puhtimäki will it KPL under pressure to produce runs. When KPL have encountered pressure this season to produce, they have struggled. Whilst Janne Kivipelto promises to be an equally fearsome pitcher for KPL, the fact remains that Joensuu have built their season by overcoming pressure and doing just enough each jakso at bat to win. KPL on the other hand have been handed loses from unexpected places such as Kankaanpää and Manse, which caused them to slide from 1st place in the table down to 4th. At the outset of the season I made a “bold prediction” that KPL would be champions this year - if they can find away to unlock Joensuu’s defence, they would surely be favourites to win the final. As it stands however, I just don’t see KPL being able to put an end to Joensuu’s winning streak.

Players to look out for: For Joensuu, Aleksi Rautiainen is my player to keep an eye on - he was fairly quiet in the series against PattU (judging by his usual standards), but in tight defensive games he poses a constant threat at bringing runners home to score. Rautiainen’s numbers in the quarterfinals was a modest 3 RBI and below average 35.71% at moving the point runner; when you compare this to his regular season stats of 65 RBI ad 50.82% success rate, you realise that there is more to come from Joensuu’s go-to hard hitter. On KPL’s lineup, there are a few pinch points, but breaking through Joensuu’s solid defence will be crucial - KPL’s leadoff hitter Tommi Mäentausta is the player I will be keeping an eye on; if he can consistently get on 1st base and run the bases cleanly there are  number of veteran hard hitters who can bring him home to score. 


Sotkamon Jymy (2) v Vimpelin Veto (3)

Head to head: ... El Klassiko is back; yes pesis’ most famous modern rivalry plays out for what promises to be an intriguing semi-final matchup. During the regular season this year Sotkamo looked in a completely different class to Vimpeli; however the games in July seem like distant memories now when you consider how Vimpeli has grown in the season and barged their way into 3rd place in the table. Vimpeli hasn’t won this matchup (other than a warmup game) since 15th September 2018 when they won bronze medals for the season. In the last 4 games, Sotkamo has won all of them, taking 3 points in 3 of them.

Form: Both teams are in good form, with Sotkamo winning 7 of the last 10 games, losing twice to Kitee. Vimpeli has the slightly better record, winning 8 of the last 10, but their losses include shock defeats to Kankaanpää and Kempele at points in the season where those 2 teams were not performing well.

Prediction: Sotkamo to win 2-1.

Summary: There is a lot of talk in media circles about the pitcher situation at Sotkamo where 17 year old Aapo Komulainen has been handed the role in place of Ville Väliaho who is considered one of the best pitchers in the league. So why is that happening? Some have questioned if he is injured or whether he is out of favour or signing for a new team in 2021. Well its easy to speculate (and indeed many people are); however I prefer to simply look out for official news when it is available and avoid those discussions - I guess that’s why I’m not a sports journalist. But when it comes to the impact these discussions will have on the team, it will certainly be unhelpful. When the St Louis Cardinals (MLB team) reached the playoffs there was a background chatter about Albert Pujols contract concluding and whether he would re-sign for the club or whether he would be moving elsewhere. It was unhelpful and manager and player immediately shut down this talk and focussed on the job in hand - winning the World Series. The dischord in Sotkamo’s ranks will have Vimpeli rubbing their hands; if there is any team that wants to rattle Sotkamo it is them. “Project Vimpeli” as I have dubbed them this season has been a work in progress which is now starting to come together - If Sotkamo are a little shaken then Vimpeli will want to pounce. Perttu Ruuska is growing in strength in the Lukkari role and he continues to impress at bat. Overall I think Sotkamo has the edge, but Saarikenttä can be a wild place to play and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few Sotkamo players will be diving into the river as Vimpeli players round the bases!

Players to look out for: It is tempting to say “look out for whoever pitches” when it comes to Sotkamo; however their options are solid no matter who they end up with. Lauri Rönkkö has been exceptional this season with 48 RBI and 46.61% success rate at moving the point runner however he barely made an impact in the series with Seinäjoki, going 1/9 overall in the 2 games combined. If Vimpeli can keep Rönkkö’s bat out of the game then they can limit Sotkamo’s offence significantly. In terms of which Vimpeli player to look out for? I will be looking at their pitcher, Perttu Ruuska. Perttu still has a lot to learn about the finer points of pitching and Sotkamo have enough skill and cunning in their lineup to exploit that. Perttu’s season has included some stunning moments and he certainly has a lot of heart and passion for the job, leading from the front (so to speak). The question here is whether Sotkamo, led by Jani Komulainen’s tactics, will be able to unravel Vimpeli in the same way that they did early in the regular season.


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